Syracuse vs. NC State Preview

NC State Wolfpack Preview

Two of the top teams in the ACC will go at it on Saturday afternoon when the Wolfpack travel to take on the Orange. NC State has been one of the better defenses in college football that often gets overlooked. The Wolfpack allow 15.7 points per game, which is the 15th-fewest across 131 FBS teams. This includes holding every one of their opponents under 300 passing yards, including just 209 to Clemson in their only loss of the season.

The offense hasn't been nearly as effective, but they can do the job they need to when the defense is so great. QB Devin Leary has been somewhat disappointing considering the massive expectations that were thrust upon him coming into the 2022 season. He was supposed to be lighting up scoreboards and was projected as a possible top-5 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. That most likely is out of reach now, but he has the talent and ability to turn it on whenever he wants.

Looking over the history of these two teams, it has been a landslide. NC State has been the far and away better team in this ACC divisional matchup across the past five years. The Wolfpack have won three consecutive games against the Orange, and the last time they played in Syracuse, the Orange were a 17-point underdog at home. Now? They are 5.5-point favorites against this NC State team.

The Wolfpack had been dominating their opponent's running attack up until Week 6 when they allowed a massive 7.4 yards per carry. No rushing attack has managed to score more than two touchdowns against NC State besides Clemson, which has one of the better rushing attacks in the nation. Syracuse is not a pass-centric offense, so it will be very interesting to see how they do against a defense that has been super efficient all season long against the run. This defense will certainly be put to the test again.

Syracuse Orange Preview

Syracuse is only one of two undefeated teams remaining in the ACC after surviving close games against Purdue and Virginia at home earlier in the season. I bet you can guess who the other undefeated team is. That's right, the all-powerful Clemson Tigers. Just shows how great and surprising this season has been from the Orange. They have a very strong rushing attack led by running back Sean Tucker, and aided by the dual-threat ability of quarterback Garrett Shrader. Together, the two of them make up one of the best offensive duos in the ACC. Head coach Dino Babers has been pretty inconsistent in his tenure coaching with the Orange, but to his credit, his team has developed significantly from a 1-10 record in 2020.

The Orange are 4-1 ATS this year and they are coming off of a 59-0 rout of Wagner. That is hardly a surprising outcome and one that you really can't learn anything from considering the level of competition they were facing. The rushing attack was unstoppable all game, as it should have been. Tucker had 23 carries for 232 yards and three rushing touchdowns, while backup RB LeQuint Allen averaged 28 YPC and also found the end zone as a ball carrier in the game. Shrader has carried at least 13 times in every single contest besides this last one against Wagner, scoring touchdowns and surpassing 83 rushing yards against both Louisville and Purdue.

I don't expect Shrader to be torching NC State's secondary in Week 7. Virginia held him without a passing touchdown, while he scored a rushing touchdown despite averaging under a yard per carry.

My Prediction

The Wolfpack haven't allowed more than one passing touchdown since Week 1 against ECU. This includes against pass-heavy attacks like Texas Tech, Clemson, and Florida State. Clemson is the only team that has scored more than 21 points against NC State this season. I don't see that changing despite the Wolfpack playing on the road in a very tough environment in a dome. The Wolfpack last suffered a loss in Syracuse back in 2018 during a 51-41 shootout. Leary is questionable for this game, which is why the spread has gone from 3 to 5.

I still will take NC State here +5.5.